Climate risks and adaptation of the waste management sector in France

Synthesis

Disclaimer: The content of this publication is based on the state of knowledge and the regulatory framework in force at the time of publication of the documents.

Context

France produces around 310 million tons of waste per year, or around 4.6 tons per capita. This waste comes mainly from three sources: households, economic activities excluding construction, and the building and public works sector, which alone accounts for 213 million tons, or nearly 70% of the total. Household waste and waste from economic activities generate 34 million and 64 million tons respectively. The waste sector is crucial for the economy and the environment, with major challenges related to waste collection, treatment, and recovery. Waste management infrastructure faces growing challenges, particularly in terms of recycling, energy recovery, and waste disposal (ref. ADEME (2024), Key figures on waste: The essentials, 2024 edition).

Climate change poses significant risks to the waste sector, particularly through an increase in extreme weather events such as floods, heat waves, and storms. These phenomena can disrupt waste collection and treatment operations, damage infrastructure, and increase operating costs. Adaptation to climate change is therefore essential to ensure continuity of services and minimize environmental and economic impacts.

The study, entitled Risks and adaptation of the waste management sector to climate change in France, was conducted by the RECORD association, in collaboration with experts from the waste management sector and public institutions.

• The study focuses on several waste treatment sectors:
• The sorting sector;
• The composting sector;
• The Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) sector;
• The incineration with energy recovery sector;
• The methanization sector;
• The mechanical-biological treatment sector;
• The bottom ash maturation platforms;
• The hazardous and non-hazardous waste storage sector.

Objectives

This sectoral study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on waste management in France, map the risks based on climate narratives for 2100, and propose recommendations and a replicable methodology to strengthen the sector's adaptation and resilience.

To achieve this objective, several specific areas of focus have been defined.

- State of play: A review was conducted to identify and summarize the information available on climate risks and potential adaptation measures in the waste sector. This included an in-depth literature review of existing studies and an analysis of technical data on the specific climate impacts of waste management infrastructure.

- Prospective analysis of climate impacts: The physical risks associated with climate change have been identified, particularly those likely to affect waste management infrastructure and activities. This analysis was conducted using climate narratives developed for the study. These scenarios made it possible to examine the potential impacts and better understand the sector's vulnerabilities to different future climate conditions.

- Risk mapping: Climate risk mapping was developed, highlighting the main threats by sector and territory (metropolitan France and overseas territories). The major risks identified were assessed and recorded in a matrix according to their occurrence and severity. This mapping made it possible to prioritize threats and better understand the exposure of infrastructure to climate hazards such as changes in the water cycle, flooding, storms, and fires.

- Proposed adaptation measures: Based on the above analyses, concrete adaptation recommendations were formulated for the various waste management sectors. These proposals were designed to be both practical and applicable at the local level, while taking into account specific geographical and industrial characteristics. The solutions suggested include organizational adjustments, infrastructure development strategies, and technical innovations to strengthen the sector's resilience to climate impacts.

This study enables various stakeholders in the sector, such as companies, operators, and other industrial sectors, to adapt and apply these analyses at the local level. It thus serves as a decision-making tool to support the transition to more resilient and sustainable waste management, including in times of crisis.

Figure 1: Study timeline (RECORD, 2025)

Results and analysis

Summary of phase 1 results

The study identified the key components of the waste sector that are likely to be exposed to climate risks, as well as the associated macro-processes and processes, using the OCARA method and the opinions of the experts who make up the study's monitoring committee.

This approach enabled a granular analysis of climate impacts on each selected component to be structured, dividing them into six key components, which were in turn subdivided into macro-processes and processes.

Three climate narratives were developed to assess the potential impacts on the waste sector. These narratives, based on climate projections for 2100 and following a hazard taxonomy developed for the study, include an optimistic scenario (+2°C compared to the pre-industrial era), a national reference scenario (+4°C) and a scenario specific to overseas territories. The optimistic narrative predicts a moderate increase in average temperatures, with more frequent heat waves and more intense droughts. The more pessimistic national reference narrative predicts a significant rise in temperatures and an intensification of extreme weather events, such as more frequent flooding and more violent storms. The narrative specific to overseas territories takes into account the specific characteristics of these regions, where climate impacts are often more pronounced due to their geographical and ecological vulnerability.

Summary of phase 2 results

The narratives developed in phase 1 made it possible to project climate impacts on sector processes using the impact chain tool and to assess the associated risks using the risk matrix tool.

The study resulted in the creation of 64 impact chains, including one for the entire sector and eight for specific processing sectors. These impact chains made it possible to identify consolidated risks, which were then mapped according to their occurrence and severity.

24 risk maps were produced, broken down by climate narrative and priority sector. These risk maps provide a detailed overview of the climate threats facing the waste management sector, facilitating the identification of priority actions.

Summary of phase 3 results

Based on the consolidated risks identified, adaptation objectives were formulated with a view to strengthening infrastructure resilience, improving the adaptability of waste management systems, ensuring the safety of facilities, and optimizing working conditions.

A total of 115 adaptation options were identified, of which 27 were prioritized through a multi-criteria analysis. These priority adaptation options include organizational measures, infrastructure development strategies, and technical innovations to strengthen the sector's resilience to climate impacts.

Results analysis

Following the impact assessment and risk mapping exercise, it appears that the following components are particularly affected: Buildings and Construction, Supplies, Equipment, and Waste Storage Conditions. The most significant risks relate to a sharp increase in fire risk (waste storage conditions) and damage to the built environment (buildings and construction). Restricted access to water (supplies) and restrictions on the operation of equipment (equipment) are also significant risks.

The study therefore focused particularly on adaptation measures aimed at mitigating these risks. For example, in terms of safety and working conditions, it is essential to implement improved safety protocols, train employees, and provide appropriate protective measures. For waste storage, innovative solutions such as advanced containment technologies and environmental monitoring systems are needed.

Finally, overseas territories, particularly the Antilles-Guyana region, require special attention to protect coastal infrastructure from sea level rise and erosion, including through the construction of dykes and the restoration of coastal ecosystems.

Conclusions

The study identified and assessed climate risks to the waste management sector in France, taking into account different climate and territorial narratives. The results provide a detailed overview of the risks and potential adaptation strategies to strengthen the sector's resilience to the challenges posed by climate change.

The outlook and recommendations from the study include the development of structured adaptation pathways, the establishment of a robust monitoring and evaluation system, the strengthening of cooperation and experimentation with innovative solutions, and the integration of climate issues into public policy. These perspectives provide a solid basis for strategic planning and optimization of investments in the waste management sector, thereby facilitating the anticipation of climate change and the adaptation of strategies to the realities on the ground and the needs of sector stakeholders.

However, the study has some potential limitations that need to be taken into account. Climate uncertainties and limitations in the available data, particularly for overseas territories, may affect the accuracy of projections and risk assessments. In addition, some climate risks may not have been identified due to the complexity of the interactions between climate hazards and waste management infrastructure. It is also important to note that the results obtained may vary depending on specific geographical features and local contexts, thus requiring adaptation of the proposed strategies.

In conclusion, the study presents a rigorous and relevant methodological approach to assessing climate impacts on the waste sector and proposing adaptation strategies to strengthen the sector's resilience. The study's findings, perspectives, and recommendations, as well as its potential limitations, provide a solid basis for strategic planning and optimization of investments in the waste management sector.