Use competitions and value variations on "waste - resource" deposits. Assessment of economic, environmental and social consequences

Synthesis

Disclaimer: The content of this publication is based on the state of knowledge and the regulatory framework in force at the time of publication of the documents.

Context and Objectives of the Study

Faced with the risks of resource scarcity, including renewable resources, and the need to reduce impacts on the climate and biosphere, waste from human activities is now considered as valuable material and energy resources. Thus, many channels, outlets, and uses are developing, sometimes without real coordination at the territorial level, or in an uncertain economic context.

Current regulations and economic developments are likely to generate usage competitions and value fluctuations for certain deposits, leading to competition biases with multiple economic, environmental, and societal consequences. These usage competitions and value variations are already visible in certain waste streams, such as organic materials.
Institutions, producers, and waste managers need to understand and anticipate these competitions to reduce tensions, direct investments towards relevant practices and technological tools, sustain recovery channels in the medium term, and justify their choices to authorities and regulatory bodies.

In this context, this study aims to provide new knowledge on usage competitions related to the exploitation of certain types of "waste-resources," their dynamics, and to offer recommendations on how to integrate them into strategic planning for private and public actors. Specifically, an important objective of this study is to formalize a relevant analytical framework for studying competitions and their emergence factors. This framework was constructed and tested on the analysis of six deposits in France: source-separated biowaste, plastic waste (PET and HDPE resins), excavated soils, wood B, paper-cardboard waste, and textile waste.

Methodological Approach

The proposed methodological approach is divided into four distinct steps:

1. Constructing the analytical framework, in the form of a typology of competitions and emergence factors at different stages of the value chain, based on a literature review and semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders (26 interviews conducted with 25 structures, from August 2023 to December 2023).
2. Analyzing the evolution of competitions according to two prospective scenarios of the evolution of French society, identifying decisive factors, or key factors, playing an influential role in the intensification or attenuation of a given competition.
3. Characterizing the environmental, social, and economic consequences raised by these evolutions, evaluated qualitatively.
4. Formalizing recommendations to potentially anticipate competitions, based on the analysis of decisive factors.
   
   

Identification of Competitions and Analytical Framework

The analytical framework (Figure 1) starts with competitions that can affect the economic attractiveness or development of material recovery of deposits, a recovery pathway highlighted in public policies. It is divided into five categories of competitions, defined according to the stage of the value chain at which they are likely to emerge. Tensions can arise during collection, recovery, and distribution of waste. Thus, there may be opposition between proponents of source reduction strategies and material recovery actors (I.1) or energy recovery actors (I.2). Also, competition between territories (world regions, countries, subnational regions) can emerge for the capture of these deposits (I.3). Downstream, products from material recovery can also be coveted by multiple sectors of application or markets (II.1) or consumption territories (II.2). The material recovery market itself competes with products it is supposed to substitute, made from virgin raw materials (III.1). Interviews also revealed competition, at least in the short term, between traditional material recovery actors (recyclers) and new entrants (market players via eco-organizations) in certain streams (IV.1). Finally, material recovery itself is traversed by competition between different possible pathways (reuse, recycling) (V.1), between material recovery actors performing the same activity (V.2), and between recycling technologies with distinct socio-technical configurations (V.3).

Figure 1: Analytical framework for the study of competition types associated with waste-resource recovery channels (RECORD, 2024)

Thus, 10 types of competitions have been identified based on the literature review and interviews conducted for the six previously mentioned deposits. It is expected that these different types of competition are not all relevant for all deposits. Some do not apply (such as energy recovery for excavated soils) or the choice is not possible due to regulatory requirements, for example, in the case of certain wood B which cannot be valorized energetically. Thus, this framework is designed to take different profiles for each deposit but is sufficiently generic to be applicable to all.

The application of this analytical framework to the six aforementioned deposits shows a diversity of competitions between the deposits (with similarities) according to the different stages of the value chain. Thus, competitions are more upstream of material recovery, during the stages of collection and preparation for recovery for biowaste, wood B, and excavated soils. For the first two, the question of the distribution of the deposit between material and energy recovery is central, although it is expressed in different ways (treatment scale). For excavated soils, competitions are less about a recovery pathway or treatment technique than between qualitative recovery (reuse, recycling), quarry backfilling, or even storage. Conversely, we find competitions more "within" and "downstream" of material recovery for plastic, paper-cardboard, and textile waste. Thus, for plastics, strong competitions are diverse and found in the recycling market (between raw materials, between value chain actors, between recycling technologies). For textiles, the competition between reuse/recycling appears to be structuring. Finally, for paper-cardboard, although a few competitions emerged from the interviews, a recent sector dynamic to produce corrugated cardboard (currently the sector's driving force) raises concerns about tensions in the supply of cardboard to be recycled between different production plants.

Among the factors favoring the emergence of these competitions, regulations (objectives for incorporating recycled materials, source separation, EPR channels), macroeconomic factors (raw material costs, transport costs), public policies (objectives of ordering parties, involvement of local authorities), industrial strategies (planned treatment capacities, decarbonization policies, marketing and eco-design strategies), factors related to the local context (quantity and quality of the deposit, spatial distribution of buyers), and land (availability of land) appear to be particularly influential. Certain emerging factors remain decisive for specific deposits. For biowaste, industrial strategies and the participation of local authorities influence their distribution among channels. For wood B, transport costs and the development of companies using recycled wood are crucial. For excavated soils, implementation costs, the maturity of user industries, and land availability are significant counterweights. Policies related to land artificialization, and local construction/deconstruction measures also affect their recovery. For plastic waste, operating costs, market strategies, recyclers' adaptability, and regulations are influential. For textile waste, public policies are crucial for balancing recycling and reuse. The factors identified for plastics also apply to textiles. Finally, for paper-cardboard waste, the quantity and quality of the deposit and the proximity principle for recycling appeared to be particularly decisive.

Evolution of Competitions According to Two ADEME 2050 Transition Scenarios

The prospective analysis used the results of the ADEME Transition(s) 2050 work at the French level. Two scenarios were chosen: the first - Green Technologies - is closest to the current trajectory of French society and the ecological and energy transition measures announced by the government (horizon 2020-2023). The second scenario - Frugal Generations - is in contrast with current measures, emphasizing the concept of sobriety and based on a strong sustainability logic, where impact management primarily involves avoiding them. In both cases, the prospective analysis considered the influence of five axes representing different areas of action contributing to France's climate transition: Techniques, Economy, Society, Governance, and Territories. These axes and their orientations according to each scenario defined the evolution directions of emergence factors and competitions. For the deposits considered, the particularly decisive emergence factors in strengthening or mitigating competition dynamics between the two scenarios are:

• For biowaste: The orientation of industrial strategies for the establishment of treatment sites in the territories (including the planned capacities) as well as the increased participation of local authorities in the management of biowaste and in the governance of their distribution among channels.
• For wood B: The evolution of transport costs (up or down) plays a crucial role, as well as the development of companies using recycled wood B in the territories.
• For excavated soils: Implementation costs, the maturity of user industries, and the availability of land necessary for valorization seem to be significant counterweights to a potential strengthening of competitions (towards an increase in the valorization of excavated soils). Also, policies related to soil artificialization and local construction/deconstruction measures will have a certain effect on the valorization potential.
• For plastic waste: The operating costs of processes, market strategies (incorporation of recycled polymers, eco-design), the adaptability of recyclers to open up to new markets, and regulations are particularly influential.
• For textile waste: The orientation of public policies (with more or less ambitious objectives for reuse, for example) is a crucial factor in seeking a balance between recycling and reuse channels. In the case of recycling, the factors identified for plastics also apply to textiles.
• For paper-cardboard waste: The quantity and quality of the available deposit and the implementation of a proximity principle for recycling appeared to be decisive.

Thus, although similar types of competitions have been identified, the analysis of decisive emergence factors shows a real diversity in the underlying mechanisms of competitions, specific to each deposit.

Environmental, Economic, and Societal Consequences of Competitions

A cross-analysis of the questions raised by competitions highlighted certain environmental, economic, and societal consequences identified during interviews and literature analysis. For biowaste and wood B, identified competitions highlighted the issue of scaling up energy recovery channels (methanization for biowaste; pyro-gasification, CSR or biomass boilers for wood B), particularly valued in the current energy context. This dynamic induces several potential consequences, both positive and negative: job creation, lower process costs in energy channels, with a potential intensification of local environmental impacts related to these technologies. For biowaste, scaling up also raises the question of adequate articulation with anti-waste prevention but also clarifies environmental priorities. A "simple/local" management of biowaste is mainly ensured by composting (although it could also be partly handled by certain methanization technologies and configurations). This type of management addresses a local environmental issue, the return of nutrients and carbon to the soil necessary for plant growth. Large-scale energy use of biowaste (ensured by methanization) primarily addresses global environmental issues, reducing dependence on fossil fuels and thus reducing greenhouse gas emissions (impact on climate change).

The analysis of the possible evolution of competitions for plastic and textile waste highlighted opposing trajectories depending on the scenario considered, revealing contrasting socio-technical choices regarding material recovery, with consequences at different stages of the value chain. On one side, a trajectory based on source reduction of waste and mechanical recycling and/or reuse, which poses a strong challenge upstream of the sector, through increased mobilization of waste producers (for source reduction and sorting) and market players (for eco-design). It involves organizational issues (creating more links between designers and recyclers, optimizing collection and sorting) and societal issues (on consumption patterns). On the other side, a trajectory based on an increasing volume of waste and management through recycling (involving chemical recycling), with notable consequences downstream of the sector: establishment of large-capacity recycling sites, with a risk of increased environmental impacts from recycling and long-distance transport. The R&D sector would be heavily mobilized (to find new technical outlets), potentially creating jobs in this sector.

Finally, for excavated soils, the analysis of competitions points to the question of the economic value of excavated soils, which remains to be found. An increase in this value (compared to backfilling and conventional materials) would have a priori negative consequences on logistics costs (for storage), which could be offset by a gain on lower supply costs compared to conventional materials. The reduction of pressure on mineral resources could nevertheless be limited, depending on whether there is a growing demand for materials or not. In addition to finding a use for the soil, avoiding backfilling could also reduce local conflicts as soil storage near residential areas could be perceived as a downgrade of certain territories.

Main Conclusions and Perspectives

Specific conclusions for the deposits studied could be further explored, considering the study's limitations related to the representativeness of the interviewed actors' sample and necessary simplifications of competition dynamics, particularly for the prospective analysis.

However, this study proposes a sufficiently generic methodological framework to be applied to different deposits and adapted to more specific territorial and waste-resource usage contexts. Future studies could build on the model proposed in this work, provided they fall within the same field, namely: the analysis of dynamics (territorial, economic) centered around the use or recovery of resource flows. They could go further by identifying the role of these competitions in the emergence or not of channels (truly competitive, even inhibiting, or leading to collaborations) and the influential determining factors (price, quality, innovation, etc.). In particular, the duality between competition and complementarity, which emerged during interviews, could not be explored in this work.

Integrating prospective scenarios, such as those developed by ADEME, was key to understanding competition mechanisms. This prospective exercise, although not essential for identifying competitions themselves, helped better understand the influence of different regulatory, technological, consumer behavior contexts, etc. It also served to identify real socio-technical issues behind observed competitions, each with their specific consequences. In the perspective of anticipating competitions, integrating these scenarios into their reflection, sector actors could better prepare for upcoming changes and develop more adapted strategies.

In conclusion, by integrating the entire value chain related to recovery channels, the developed framework can highlight multi-actor, multi-strategy issues, going beyond market dynamics related to recycling or energy recovery, often highlighted. This systemic vision is now essential to better understand the deployment of the circular economy, particularly the recovery of waste-resources adapted to territories and the various actors involved.